If the US genuinely tries to close its overall deficit with big tariffs all round, it will cause a crunching recession. If Trump discriminates between trading partners, the heavily tariffed ones can nip through the side door of those who escaped more lightly.

Including VAT s in reciprocity would lead to hefty increases in tariffs. Goldman Sachs, a bank, says that if America adopted only mirror-image tariffs without retaliation, its levies would rise by an average of two percentage points. Many European vat rates exceed 20%.

WASHINGTON—President Trump on Thursday is expected to outline reciprocal tariffs on nations that have imposed levies on U.S. exports, the White House said, using executive action to bring to life a far-reaching proposal from his first term that never came to fruition.